Abstract:
Coal is still the most important energy resource in China for a long time. In order to predict China’s energy consumption structure,especially coal consumption demand for guiding the coal industry development,this paper sys- tematically analyzes the characteristics and trend of economic development,total and individual sub-energy consump- tion and the elastic coefficient of energy consumption in China in the past 20 years,then the stages of economic devel- opment,the consumption and elastic coefficient of energy are divided according to their changes. The elasticity coeffi- cient method is used to forecast China’s total energy consumption demand in 2025. The concept of Incremental Contri- bution Value of Sub-energy ( ICVS,i. e. contribution value of sub-energy consumption increment to elasticity coeffi- cient) and its formula are put forward to predict the consumption demand of coal,oil,gas and non-fossil energy in 2025. It shows that China’ s economic development can be divided into three stages during the period between the years of 2000 and 2018,which includes scale-speed period,medium-to-high-speed growth period and quality-efficiency period. Total consumption of energy can be divided into three stages:extensive development of energy intensive heavy industry,transition from extensive development to high quality development,and new normal high quality development. The elasticity coefficient of energy consumption and contribution value of sub-energy consumption increment also show three stages. According to the study,the demand of China’ s energy consumption in 2025 will be 5. 5 to 5. 6 billion tons of coal equivalent,among which,coal,petroleum,natural gas and non-fossil energy consumption demand are 2. 8-2. 9 billion tons of coal equivalent,1. 1 billion tons of coal equivalent,0. 6 billion tons of coal equivalent and 1. 0 bil- lion tons of coal equivalent,accounting for 50% -52% ,20% ,11% and 18% of total energy consumption respectively. China’s energy structure will be further optimized in next five years. Proportion of coal declined from 72. 5% in 2007, to 59% in 2018 and will be 50% -52% in 2025 while the non-fossil energy increases from 14. 3% in 2018 to 18% in 2025.