基于模糊贝叶斯网络的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估

Risk assessment of gas explosionin coal mines based on fuzzy Bayesian network

  • 摘要: 为了量化煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险并解决风险分析中不确定性处理的不足,基于贝叶斯网络及模糊集理论提出了一种瓦斯爆炸风险评估方法。首先,基于专家经验确定影响瓦斯爆炸的主要风险因素,并分别构建了瓦斯爆炸、瓦斯超限、点火源的风险拓扑结构模型,同时基于模糊集理论,利用三角模糊数评估风险因素的先验和条件概率。然后利用贝叶斯正向因果推理计算瓦斯爆炸发生概率,并结合反向诊断推理分析瓦斯爆炸的成因机理,快速查明最可能的风险因素。最后基于贝叶斯重要度分析完成敏感性分析,找出影响瓦斯爆炸关键风险因素。案例研究表明:吉林某矿工作面瓦斯爆炸风险概率为5.5%,为小概率事件,但当井下生产条件发生变化,尤其是多个风险因素同时发生时,瓦斯爆炸风险水平上升幅度较大。通过因果推理,可以判别瓦斯爆炸风险水平是否在可接受范围内。通过逆向诊断推理可知,通风阻力和通风故障2者的后验概率均在15%以上,瓦斯爆炸对这2个风险因素较敏感,应该重视矿井通风系统在矿井生产单元中的重要作用。同时通过敏感性分析可知,点火源中电火花和煤自燃是瓦斯爆炸的关键风险因素。评估方法可为决策者有效管理煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险提供技术指导。

     

    Abstract: In order to quantify the risk of coal mine gas explosion and solve the deficiency problem in dealing with uncertainty in risk analysis, a risk assessment method of gas explosion using the Bayesian network and fuzzy set theory is proposed. Firstly, the main factors influencing gas explosion are identified based on expertise, and the topology models of gas explosion, gas overrun, and ignition source are built respectively. At the same time, the prior and conditional probabilities of risk factors are evaluated by triangular fuzzy number based on fuzzy set theory. Then, the probability of gas explosion is calculated using forward causal inference, and the formation mechanism of gas explosion is analyzed with reverse diagnosis inference, so as to identify the most likely risk factors quickly. Finally, the key risk factors affecting gas explosion are found with sensitivity analysis based on the Bayesian importance analysis. The case study shows that the probability of gas explosion in the working face of a mine in Jilin Province is 5.5%, which is a small probability event. However, when the underground production conditions change, especially when multiple risk factors occur at the same time, the risk level of gas explosion increase significantly. Through causal inference, the authors can determine whether the risk level of gas explosion is within the acceptable range. The posterior probability of ventilation resistance and ventilation failure exceed 15% by reverse diagnosis inference. Gas explosion is sensitive to these two risk factors and an attention should be paid to the important role of mine ventilation system in mine production unit. At the same time, electric spark and coal spontaneous combustion in ignition source are the key risk factors of gas explosion based on sensitivity analysis. The assessment method can provide a technical guidance for decision makers to effectively manage the risk of gas explosion in coal mine.

     

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