资源型城市碳排放演变及影响因素研究进展

Research progress on the evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions in resource-based cities

  • 摘要: 随着化石能源的使用,全球变暖已经成为各国普遍关注的话题,中国多次在国际社会提出碳减排目标,资源型城市作为实现双碳目标的重点减碳区域之一,愈发受到社会关注。通过梳理文献,总结资源型城市碳排放估算、碳排放时空演变、碳排放预测、碳排放影响因素等方面研究方法及特征,分析中国资源型城市碳排放的整体演变趋势及其影响因素。梳理发现,中国相关研究已取得一定进展,研究方法和研究成果逐渐丰富:① 从研究对象及尺度来看,碳排放以区域或省市为研究区开展研究较多,对不同生命阶段和不同类型资源型城市研究相对较少。② 在研究方法方面,目前资源型城市碳排放量估算主要采用排放因子法和排放因子法与夜间灯光数据相结合的方法;时空演变研究以莫兰指数和冷热点分析为主;碳排放的预测分析主要基于情景设置开展;资源型城市碳排放影响因素分析主要采用因素分解法和空间计量方法。③ 从研究结果角度来看,中国多数资源型城市碳排放总量较大且仍处于增长阶段,碳排放具有较高的空间相关性和集聚特征,未来一段时间内碳排放仍将继续增加,各地基准发展情景下2030年碳达峰目标实现情况存在差异,资源型城市碳排放影响因素主要有人口、经济、能源等。提出未来研究重点方向,包括加强资源型城市碳排放时空研究精细性、强化碳排放数据可获取性、深化不同生命阶段资源型城市碳排放影响因素分析、构建资源型城市碳减排机制与碳达峰碳中和路线图等。

     

    Abstract: With the use of fossil fuels, global warming has become a widely discussed topic around the world. China has repeatedly proposed carbon reduction targets in the international community. The characteristics of resource-based cities make them one of the key carbon reduction areas for achieving the dual carbon goals. The research summarizes the methods and characteristics of emission estimation, spatio-temporal evolution, prediction, and influencing factors of carbon emissions in resource-based cities through literature review. And the overall evolution trend and influencing factors of carbon emissions in resource-based cities in China are analyzed. The review found that China’s relevant research has made some progress, and research methods and results are becoming increasingly rich: ① In terms of research objects and scales, studies on carbon emissions are mostly conducted in regions or provinces, with relatively few studies on resource-based cities of different life stages and types. ② In terms of research methods, the estimation of carbon emissions in resource-based cities mainly uses the emission factor method and combines it with nighttime light data. Spatio-temporal evolution research mainly uses Moran’s I and hot-cold spot analysis. Predictive analysis of carbon emissions is mainly based on scenario settings. The factor decomposition method and spatial econometric analysis are mainly used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in resource-based cities. ③ From the perspective of research results, the total carbon emissions of most resource-based cities in China are large and still in a growing stage. Carbon emissions have a high spatial correlation and agglomeration characteristics, and carbon emissions are expected to continue to increase in the future. There are differences in achieving the 2030 carbon peak target under different baseline development scenarios. The main factors affecting carbon emissions in resource-based cities are population, economy, and energy, among others. The study identifies future research directions, including strengthening the refinement of spatio-temporal studies on carbon emissions in resource-based cities, enhancing the accessibility of carbon emissions data, deepening analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emissions in resource-based cities at different stages of life, building carbon reduction mechanisms and roadmaps for achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutrality in resource-based cities.

     

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