露天煤矿经济合理剥采比动态预测方法

Dynamic prediction method of economic and reasonable stripping ratio in open-pit coal mine

  • 摘要: 在我国露天煤矿设计中,首要环节就是圈定合理的开采境界,其实质是通过合理手段控制境界内剥采比,确保其不超过经济合理剥采比。传统经济合理剥采比的计算方法(成本法、比较法)通常假设煤炭价格、剥采成本等参数为固定值,致使经济合理剥采比计算结果在较长时间内保持不变。然而,煤炭价格、成本、资源条件和开采方法等因素均具有较强的动态特征,不可避免地随时间发生变化。这就导致采用现有计算方法难以有效应对这些因素的动态变化,无法实现经济合理剥采比的动态预测,进而影响矿山整体经济效益。基于此,提出了一种基于动态经济理论的经济合理剥采比计算方法。通过改进经济合理剥采比计算公式,在计算过程中综合考虑了安全费用、生态成本、严寒气候影响等3项指标的影响。收集煤炭坑口价格与长协价格历史数据,识别出影响煤炭价格的关键因素,提出了基于VMD分解−SVR重构混合预测模型的时间序列预测方法,有效预测了煤炭价格的未来走势。同时,分析了不同开采工艺的成本结构,构建了单斗−卡车间断、单斗−卡车−半固定破碎站半连续2种典型开采工艺的成本计算模型,提出了综合开采工艺下剥采成本的计算方法。结合以上分析,提出了能够有效地应对煤炭价格波动、开采成本变化的经济合理剥采比动态预测方法。以准东露天煤矿为实例进行分析,结果表明:未来5 a该露天矿经济合理剥采比将由10.0 m3/t提高至16.4 m3/t,为其开采境界的合理圈定提供了依据。提出的基于动态经济理论的经济合理剥采比动态预测方法,能够为境界的合理圈定提供切实有效的数据支撑。

     

    Abstract: In the design of open-pit coal mines in China, the primary task is to define the rational mining boundary, which essentially involves controlling the stripping ratio within the boundary to ensure that it does not exceed the economically reasonable stripping ratio. Traditional methods for calculating the economically reasonable stripping ratio (such as the cost method and comparative method) typically assume that economic parameters like coal prices and stripping costs are fixed values, resulting in a constant economic stripping ratio over a long period. However, coal prices, costs, resource conditions, and mining methods all exhibit strong dynamic characteristics and inevitably change over time. As a result, existing calculation methods cannot effectively address these dynamic changes and fail to provide a dynamic prediction of the economically reasonable stripping ratio, thus impacting the overall economic efficiency of the mine. Based on dynamic economic theory, a calculation method for economically rational stripping ratio is proposed. By improving the safety costs, ecological costs, and the impact of severe climatic conditions. Historical data on pithead prices and long-term contract prices of coal are collected to identify the key factors influencing coal prices. A time-series prediction method based on the VMD - SVR hybrid model is proposed to effectively forecast the future trend of coal prices. Furthermore, the cost structures of different mining techniques are analyzed, and cost calculation models are developed for two typical mining methods: the dragline-truck intermittent method and the dragline-truck-semi-fixed crusher station semi-continuous method. Based on these analyses, a dynamic prediction method for the economically reasonable stripping ratio is proposed, which can effectively address fluctuations in coal prices and changes in mining costs. Using the example of the Zhundong open-pit coal mine, the results show that the economically reasonable stripping ratio for the mine will increase from 10.0 m3/t to 16.4 m3/t over the next five years. This provides a basis for the rational delineation of the mining boundary. The dynamic prediction method for the economically rational stripping ratio, based on dynamic economic theory, can provide practical and effective data support for the rational delineation of mining boundaries.

     

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