Abstract: The extraction of coal seam could induce a series of ecological environment problems in arid and semi-arid mining area of Northwest China. In order to clarify the driving factors of ecological environment in coal mining areas and form an ecological risk prediction method, Yushen mining area was taken as the research object, the relationships between meteorology, soil, groundwater, aquiclude, mining parameters and ecological environment elements were analyzed, the ecological risk prediction model of coal mine area was formed, and the distribution of ecological risk index under coal mining conditions was predicted. The results showed that NDVI increased with the increase of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, vegetation water consumption decreased first and then remains stable with the increase of water table depth. Under the condition of coal mining, the groundwater loss of loose aquifer decreased with the increase of the thickness of the aquiclude, the development height of water-conducting fracture zone was positively correlated with mining thickness, width and depth, the maximum surface horizontal deformation was positively correlated with mining thickness and width, and negatively correlated with mining speed. On this basis, the ecological risk prediction index system of coal mine was constructed, which was composed of nine key factors, such as drought index, surface slope, soil type, water table depth, aquiclude thickness, development height of water-conducting fracture zone, ratio of mining depth to mining thickness, ratio of mining width to mining depth, mining speed, and the grade division and corresponding value of each index were given according to the quantitative and qualitative characteristics. Taking the typical water-rich coal mine of Yushen mining area as an example, the comprehensive weight of each index was determined by the game theory based on the subjective and objective weight, the weight of development height of water-conducting fracture zone, water table depth, aquiclude thickness, drought index, ratio of mining depth to mining thickness was relatively large, and the sum of five weights accounted for 99% of the total weight, which played a decisive role in ecological risk prediction. The prediction results show that the areas with medium ecological risk accounted for 58.95%, and the areas with high ecological risk accounted for 41.05%, and there was no low-risk area. It was necessary to reduce the ecological risk of mining by adjusting the mining parameters to inhibit the development of water-conductive fracture zone and surface cracks, carrying out the reconstruction of aquiclude to increase the thickness of aquiclude, and restoring the damaged ecological environment. The research results could provide reference for the ecological environment protection and restoration in arid and semi-arid coal mining area of Northwest China.