基于机器学习的煤自燃预测研究进展及展望

A review on coal spontaneous combustion prediction based on machine learning

  • 摘要: 煤炭开采正面临着煤自燃灾害的严重威胁,煤自燃预测作为防治煤自燃灾害发生的重要环节之一,可以提前发现潜在的煤自燃风险,从而采取措施以确保煤炭安全开采。机器学习方法,能够很好地分析与处理煤自燃与各项预测指标之间的复杂关系,在煤自燃预测方面得到了广泛的研究。因此,对机器学习在煤自燃预测中的研究进行全面的综述,分析其在预测中面临的难点并展望其发展方向。首先,分析机器学习在煤自燃温度、危险性及其他方面预测的主要预测指标,简述了应用于煤自燃预测的特征工程。其次,分析了机器学习在煤自燃预测领域的主要研究进展,包括人工神经网络(Artificial Neural Network, ANN)、支持向量机(Support Vector Machines, SVM)、聚类分析(Cluster Analysis, CA)和集成学习(Ensemble learning, EL)等算法的应用,总结应用于煤自燃预测的优化算法,同时也提出了目前机器学习应用于煤自燃预测存在的问题,例如预测指标选择有待商榷、训练样本较少且无法全面反映现场实际情况等问题。最后,展望了基于机器学习的煤自燃预测的未来发展方向,具体包括:在预测模型所需数据方面,着重于提升样本数量和质量;在煤自燃预测指标选择方面,构建煤自燃预测指标自适应优选模型;在煤自燃预测技术方面,开发煤自燃灾害预测大模型。随着计算性能的提升,有望开发出适用于煤矿所有灾害的大型语言模型,以提高对煤矿灾害事故的防范化解能力。

     

    Abstract: The coal mining industry confronts a formidable challenge posed by spontaneous combustion disasters. As one of the crucial steps of prevention, spontaneous combustion prediction enables the early detection of potential risks, thereby facilitating the implementation of timely and effective preventive measures to ensure safety throughout the coal mining process. Machine learning methods, adept at analyzing and handling the intricate relationships between spontaneous combustion and various predictive indicators, have been extensively studied in the field of coal spontaneous combustion prediction. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the research on machine learning in coal spontaneous combustion prediction, analyzes the difficulties in prediction and prospects its development direction. Firstly, the paper provides an analysis of primary predictive indicators utilized in forecasting spontaneous combustion temperature, hazard levels, and other aspects. Additionally, briefly discussing feature engineering techniques applied to spontaneous combustion prediction. Then, it analyzes the research progress in the field of coal spontaneous combustion prediction, including the application of artificial neural networks, support vector machines, cluster analysis, and ensemble learning machines. It summarizes the optimization algorithms applied to coal spontaneous combustion prediction. In addition, it also raises the existing problems in the current research, including the selection of prediction indicators being questionable, as well as the limited number of training samples and their inability to fully reflect the actual field conditions. Finally, the future directions for machine learning-based spontaneous combustion prediction are outlooked including following aspects. In terms of the data required for prediction models, it is proposed to improve the quantity and quality of samples. In terms of indicator selection for coal spontaneous combustion prediction, it is proposed to establish an adaptive optimization model for coal spontaneous combustion prediction indicators. In terms of coal spontaneous combustion prediction technologys, it is proposed to develope large model for predicting coal spontaneous combustion disasters. With the continuous improvement of computing performance, large language models tailored for all hazards in coal mines may be proposed, which can further improve the prevention and mitigation capabilities against coal mine accidents.

     

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