智能综采工作面时空区域来压事件动态预报方法

Dynamic prediction method for pressure events in spatiotemporal regions of intelligent fully mechanized mining face

  • 摘要: 综采工作面周期来压预测预报在预防顶板灾害和保障矿井安全生产中具有重要意义,当前综采智能化建设发展使工作面产生海量压力数据,数据驱动与数智赋能是工作面周期来压预测预报的技术发展关键。基于来压预报技术需求与数据动态分析技术优势,提出了智能综采工作面时空区域来压事件动态预报方法体系。首先提出区域块来压判别方法,设计基于区域块划分的特征提取和来压判别算法,利用现场数据对比分析单架与区域块来压判别结果,验证了区域块来压判别方法更易揭示工作面来压周期性时空显现规律;然后构建了基于CNN-BiLSTM-Attention融合网络的区域块循环末阻力特征预测模型,利用200个工作循环的液压支架立柱压力现场数据作为样本进行建模分析,通过对比评估不同模型验证了该模型的优越性,其均方误差低至0.002 3,达到应用标准;最后构建基于局部莫兰指数的来压区域自相关聚合模型,设计开发区域块循环末阻力特征自相关聚合算法流程,实现自动地、动态地预报来压事件及其区域范围,与真实来压工况对比模型预测准确率达85%。上述模型方法分别在本工作面、不同矿井相似地质工作面、同一矿井不同地质工作面进行模型应用,分析结果表明:本工作面可以较准确地动态预测预报下一阶段循环来压事件及其区域;在相似地质条件下模型仍具备一定的应用价值,泛化能力较好;在不同地质条件下模型应用效果显著下降,需重新建模以提升预测准确性与实用性。该方法为工作面周期来压预测预报提供了切实可行的技术路径,在矿井安全监测和灾害预警方面具有重要的应用前景。

     

    Abstract: The prediction and forecasting of cyclic roof pressure in fully mechanized mining faces play a crucial role in preventing roof disasters and ensuring mine safety. The current development of intelligent fully mechanized mining has generated a massive amount of pressure data from mining faces. Data-driven approaches and digital intelligence empowerment are the key technical developments in the prediction and forecasting of cyclic roof pressure. Based on the technical requirements for roof pressure forecasting and the advantages of dynamic data analysis, this study proposes a dynamic forecasting method system for spatiotemporal regional roof pressure events in intelligent fully mechanized mining faces. First, a regional block pressure discrimination method is proposed, with feature extraction and pressure discrimination algorithms designed based on regional block division. By comparing and analyzing on-site data with single-frame and regional block pressure discrimination results, it is verified that the regional block pressure discrimination method is more effective in revealing the periodic spatiotemporal patterns of pressure changes in the working face. Then, a regional block cyclic end resistance feature prediction model based on a CNN-BiLSTM-Attention fusion network was constructed. Using 200 working cycles of hydraulic support pillar pressure field data as samples for modeling analysis, the superiority of the model was validated through comparative evaluation of different models, with an MSE as low as 0.002 3, meeting application standards; Finally, a regional self-correlation aggregation model based on the local Moran index was constructed, and a regional block cyclic end resistance feature self-correlation aggregation algorithm process was designed and developed to achieve automatic and dynamic forecasting of pressure events and their regional scope. When compared with actual pressure conditions, the model's prediction accuracy reached 85%. The aforementioned model methods were applied to this working face, similar geological working faces in different mines, and different geological working faces in the same mine. The analysis results indicate: this working face can accurately dynamically predict and forecast the next phase of cyclic pressure events and their regional scope; under similar geological conditions, the model still has certain application value and good generalization capability; under different geological conditions, the model's application effectiveness significantly decreases, requiring re-modeling to improve prediction accuracy and practicality. This method provides a feasible technical approach for predicting and forecasting cyclic pressure events in working faces, offering significant application potential in mine safety monitoring and disaster warning systems.

     

/

返回文章
返回