榆横矿区中厚煤层加长工作面高强度开采矿压显现规律与区域等级智能预警

Strata pressure behavior law and regional-level intelligent early warning for high-intensity mining in extended working faces of medium-thick coal seams in Yuheng mining area

  • 摘要: 高强度开采和工作面长度增加使得矿压显现规律和时空分布特征出现变化,实现顶板来压的智能预测对于保障矿井安全生产具有重要意义。以陕西榆横矿区袁大滩煤矿中厚煤层加长工作面高强度开采的矿压演化趋势和分级预测为背景,分析了加长工作面支架阻力的分布特征和矿压显现规律,将工作面矿压数据动态映射至具有拓扑关系的空间网格单元,利用无监督聚类算法提取了工作面支架时空关联特征,形成了时空联动的支架阻力分析方法,构建了基于patch机制的Transformer(Patch Time Series Transformer,PatchTST)矿压预测模型,基于现场实测数据横向对比测试了多种预测模型,验证了PatchTST的准确性和对矿压长序列预测的适用性,最后进行了工程应用性能测试和预测误差分析。结果表明:袁大滩煤矿11207加长工作面倾向方向压力分布呈现“双波峰−谷间震荡”的“M”型特征,随着推进度和时间推移,“M”型压力场总体呈现出“形成−稳定−递归”的周期性演化规律;矿压数据经过空间网格单元的动态映射和聚类分析后,可以精确辨识工作面来压积聚区域并实现来压强度分级的自动求解;PatchTST模型在回视窗口240,预测步长为3的情况下预测精度最佳,评估指标MSE值和MAE值分别为0.095、0.240;横向对比多个基于注意力机制的模型,PatchTST模型均能做到最低的预测误差;工程应用性能测试表明,所用方法准确辨识了现场观测较为强烈的来压,误差分析同样表明模型的预测精度较高,准确率可达92.8%。研究可为加长工作面矿压显现规律及工作面来压的智能预测预警提供借鉴与参考。

     

    Abstract: High-intensity mining and extended working faces have significantly modified strata pressure manifestation patterns and triggered spatiotemporal evolution of mining-induced pressure. Achieving intelligent prediction of roof pressure is of great significance for ensuring the safe production of mines. Based on the evolution trend and classification prediction of mine pressure in the extended working face of the medium-thick coal seam under high-intensity mining in Yuandatan Coal Mine, Yuheng Mining Area, Shaanxi Province, the distribution characteristics of the support resistance in the extended working face and the strata pressure behavior law were analyzed. The mine pressure data of the working face was dynamically mapped to the spatial grid cells with topological relationships. The spatio-temporal correlation characteristics of the support in the working face were extracted by using the unsupervised clustering algorithm, forming a spatio-temporal linkage support resistance analysis method. A Transformer (Patch Time Series Transformer, PatchTST) mine pressure prediction model based on the patch mechanism was constructed. Multiple prediction models were horizontally compared and tested based on the field measured data to verify the accuracy of PatchTST and its applicability to the prediction of long mine pressure sequences. Finally, the engineering application performance test and prediction error analysis were carried out. The results show that the pressure distribution in the strike direction of the 11207 extended working face of Yuandatan Coal Mine presents an “M”-shaped feature of “double peaks-valley oscillation”. With the advancement and time progression, the “M”-shaped pressure field generally shows a periodic evolution law of “formation-stabilization-recurrence”. After the mine pressure data is dynamically mapped and clustered in the spatial grid units, the accumulation area of the working face pressure can be accurately identified, and the automatic solution of the pressure intensity classification can be achieved. The PatchTST model has the best prediction accuracy when the look-back window is 240 and the prediction step is 3, with the evaluation indicators MSE and MAE being 0.095 and 0.240, respectively. Compared with multiple models based on the attention mechanism, the PatchTST model can achieve the lowest prediction error. The engineering application performance test shows that the method accurately identifies the relatively strong pressure observed on site, and the error analysis also indicates that the prediction accuracy of the model is high, with an accuracy rate of up to 92.8%. The research can provide reference and guidance for the strata pressure behavior law in extended working faces and the intelligent prediction and early warning of working face pressure.

     

/

返回文章
返回