基于多源特征体系与融合模型的瓦斯含量分布预测方法

Prediction method for gas content distribution based on multi-source feature system and fusion model

  • 摘要: 随着煤矿开采向深部延伸,井下地质条件愈发复杂,矿井瓦斯含量因时空关联复杂导致的预测失准问题日益凸显,传统预测方法难以突破“宏观趋势与局部细节割裂、空间关联与时序动态脱节”的技术瓶颈。为切实提升瓦斯含量预测的精准性与可靠性,开展基于时空特征的瓦斯含量分布预测方法研究并配套开展工程验证试验。以高瓦斯矿井煤层采区所划分网格节点为研究载体,构建基于节点基础特征、邻接矩阵、边特征矩阵的多维度网格节点特征体系,引入泛克里金(Universal Kriging, UK)空间插值算法,构建瓦斯含量宏观空间变化趋势基准模型;提出UK-Graph Transformer-LSTM融合预测模型,通过深度挖掘断层阻隔、岩性差异等控制下的网格节点空间拓扑关联,借助LSTM捕捉抽采流量时序动态依赖关系;设计残差校正模块学习UK基准模型的预测偏差,实现宏观趋势与时空细节的深度融合。试验对比分析结果显示,UK基准模型虽可刻画瓦斯含量的宏观分布趋势,但预测精度存在明显短板,其均方根误差(Root Mean Squared Error, RMSE)与平均绝对百分比误差(Mean Absolute Percentage Error, MAPE)分别高达0.24 m3/t、2.51%;单一插值算法与单一深度学习模型则因固有缺陷难以适配瓦斯抽采的动态工况,前者缺失时序演化维度,后者缺乏空间约束机制,均无法实现时空协同预测。相比之下,融合模型依托多特征协同驱动机制,实现了预测精度的全方位提升,其RMSE仅为0.19 m3/t,平均绝对误差(Mean Absolute Error, MAE)低至0.16 m3/t,MAPE更是控制在1.60%。与UK基准模型相比,融合模型MAE降低30.43%,MAPE降低36.30%,最大误差降低9.38%,残差平方和降低76.44%。基于该模型预测结果,可精准识别地质构造核心带等高风险区域,为矿井瓦斯灾害防治及抽采参数优化提供重要的理论依据与技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: As coal mining extends deeper, the geological conditions underground become increasingly complex. The issue of inaccurate prediction of mine gas content due to complex spatiotemporal correlations has become increasingly prominent. Traditional prediction methods cannot effectively overcome the technical bottleneck of “separation between macro trends and local details, and disconnection between spatial correlation and temporal dynamics”. To effectively enhance the accuracy and reliability of gas content prediction, research was conducted on a gas content distribution prediction method based on spatiotemporal characteristics, accompanied by engineering verification tests. Taking the grid nodes divided in coal seam mining areas of high-gas mines as the research carrier, a multi-dimensional grid node feature system was constructed based on node basic features, adjacency matrices, and edge feature matrices. The Universal Kriging (UK) spatial interpolation algorithm was introduced, to establish a baseline model for the macro spatial variation trend of gas content. A UK-Graph Transformer-LSTM fusion prediction model was proposed. By deeply mining the spatial topological associations of grid nodes under the control of fault barriers, lithological differences, and other factors, LSTM was utilized to capture the dynamic temporal dependencies of extraction flow rates. A residual correction module was designed to learn the prediction biases of the UK baseline model, achieving a deep fusion of macro trends with spatiotemporal details. Experimental comparative analysis results showed that while the UK baseline model could depict the macro distribution trend of gas content, its prediction accuracy had significant shortcomings. Its root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were as high as 0.24 m3/t and 2.51%, respectively. Single interpolation algorithms and single deep learning models struggled to adapt to the dynamic conditions of gas extraction due to inherent flaws. The former lacked the dimension of temporal evolution, while the latter lacked a spatial constraint mechanism, both unable to achieve spatiotemporal collaborative prediction. In contrast, the fusion model, relying on a multi-feature collaborative driving mechanism, achieved comprehensive improvement in prediction accuracy. Its RMSE was only 0.19 m3/t, the mean absolute error (MAE) was as low as 0.16 m3/t, and the MAPE was controlled at 1.60%. Compared to the UK baseline model, the fusion model reduced MAE by 30.43%, MAPE by 36.30%, maximum error by 9.38%, and residual sum of squares by 76.44%. Based on the prediction results of this model, high-risk areas such as the core zones of geological structures can be accurately identified, providing important theoretical basis and technical support for the prevention and control of mine gas disasters and the optimization of extraction parameters.

     

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