EGS全生命周期诱发地震/微地震机理研究进展

Research progress on mechanisms of induced seismicity and microseismicity during full life cycle of EGS

  • 摘要: 增强型地热系统(EGS)通常被视为开发干热岩资源的主要技术路径,但在压裂造储、停注关井以及后续循环取热过程中,地震/微震活动并不少见。干热岩储层以晶质低渗岩体为主,基质渗透率低,流体更多沿人工裂缝、天然裂隙和断层破碎带运移。因此若只用孔隙压力扩散、热弹性应力或孔弹应力中的某一种机制解释EGS诱震过程,往往难以覆盖不同工程阶段中出现的差异。整理了79个公开EGS诱发地震/微震案例,并结合相关理论分析、现场监测和数值模拟成果,从压裂、关井后和循环流体3个阶段讨论震源响应及其机制变化。案例统计显示,压裂阶段记录的事件最多,约占72%;循环流体阶段约占26%;关井后阶段约占2%。但事件数量并不等同于风险强度,较大震级事件往往出现在压力扰动与近临界断层、优势导流通道或应力转移过程叠加的情形下。压裂阶段的微震多集中在井筒附近或压裂改造体积内,通常与水力裂缝扩展、裂缝尖端应力集中、小尺度天然裂隙剪切滑移有关;一旦人工裂缝与断层形成水力连通,压力传播和库仑应力变化就可能触发断层滑移。停注以后,风险并不会随注入结束而马上消失。残余压力仍可沿裂隙网络向远场传递,孔弹应力回弹、裂缝闭合、无震蠕滑以及先发事件造成的静态应力转移,也可能继续改变远场断层的稳定状态。进入循环取热阶段后,诱发事件通常表现为长期、低震级微震;早期主要受注采压差和既有裂隙再活化影响,随着冷却前缘推进,热收缩、裂隙开度调整、水−岩反应和断层摩擦性质变化会逐步参与控制。基于这些认识,EGS诱震过程可理解为一个阶段转换过程:压裂期以裂缝扩展和断层连通为主,关井后转向压力−应力再分布,长期运行中则逐渐受热−流−力−化学耦合作用影响。相应地,风险调控也不宜停留在单一操作阈值上。压裂前应加强断层识别、地应力评价和井位优化,施工中结合分阶段注入、微震监测和井下压力反馈控制裂缝扩展;关井后可根据场址条件采用慢停注、阶梯降压、保压观察或适度返排,并将监测延续至压力重分布趋于稳定;循环阶段则需维持注采平衡,联合微震、DAS、InSAR、井下压力、温度、流量和流体化学数据更新风险模型。后续模型还需更细致地刻画裂隙/断层网络、热孔弹响应、断层摩擦滑移和化学弱化过程,使红绿灯预警逐步从经验阈值判断转向受物理机制约束的动态预测。

     

    Abstract: Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) offer a practical route for extracting heat from hot dry rock, yet their operation can be accompanied by seismicity or microseismicity during hydraulic stimulation, after shut-in, and throughout later circulation. This seismic response is tied to the structure of hot dry rock reservoirs. These reservoirs are usually crystalline and tight, with very low matrix permeability, so fluids tend to move through hydraulic fractures, natural fractures, and fault damage zones rather than through a homogeneous porous medium. As a result, no single mechanism, whether pore-pressure diffusion, thermoelastic stressing, or poroelastic stressing, can explain the full range of EGS-induced seismic responses. Drawing on 79 publicly reported cases, together with theoretical analyses, field observations, and numerical simulations, this review examines how seismic responses and controlling mechanisms change from hydraulic stimulation to post-shut-in and circulation stages. Hydraulic stimulation accounts for the largest share of the reported cases, about 72%, whereas circulation accounts for about 26% and post-shut-in events for about 2%. These proportions, however, should not be read as a direct measure of risk. Larger events are more closely associated with the overlap between pressure perturbations, near-critical faults, preferential flow paths, and stress transfer. During hydraulic stimulation, microseismicity is generally concentrated near the wellbore or within the stimulated reservoir volume. It is mainly linked to hydraulic fracture propagation, stress concentration at fracture tips, shear slip on small natural fractures, and local stress redistribution. The situation changes when hydraulic fractures connect with faults, because pressure transmission and Coulomb stress changes may then promote fault slip. After shut-in, the end of injection does not necessarily mean that the system has stabilized. Residual pressure can continue to migrate through fracture networks toward the far field, while poroelastic rebound, fracture closure, aseismic creep, and static stress transfer from earlier events may still alter the stability of distant faults. During circulation, induced events are often long-lasting and low in magnitude. Early responses are controlled mainly by injection-production pressure differences and reactivation of existing fractures; with the advance of the cooling front, thermal contraction, fracture aperture changes, water-rock reactions, and evolving fault friction become increasingly relevant. EGS-induced seismicity is therefore better treated as a stage-dependent process. Hydraulic stimulation is dominated by fracture growth and possible fault connection; the post-shut-in period is governed more by pressure-stress redistribution; and long-term operation gradually brings thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical coupling into play. Risk control needs to follow this evolution. Before stimulation, fault identification, in-situ stress evaluation, and well-site optimization are needed. During stimulation, staged injection, microseismic monitoring, and downhole pressure feedback can help constrain fracture growth. After shut-in, slow shut-in, stepwise pressure reduction, pressure-holding observation, or moderate flowback may be selected according to site conditions, with monitoring continued until pressure redistribution becomes relatively stable. During circulation, injection-production balance should be maintained, and microseismic, DAS, InSAR, downhole pressure, temperature, flow-rate, and fluid-chemistry data should be integrated into risk-model updating. Future models need to represent fracture and fault networks, thermo-poroelastic responses, fault frictional slip, and chemical weakening in more detail, so that traffic-light systems can move beyond empirical thresholds toward dynamic forecasts constrained by physical mechanisms.

     

/

返回文章
返回