崔峰,何仕凤,来兴平,等. 基于相空间重构与深度学习的冲击地压矿井时间序列b值趋势[J]. 煤炭学报,2023,48(5):2022−2034. DOI: 10.13225/j.cnki.jccs.2022.0618
引用本文: 崔峰,何仕凤,来兴平,等. 基于相空间重构与深度学习的冲击地压矿井时间序列b值趋势[J]. 煤炭学报,2023,48(5):2022−2034. DOI: 10.13225/j.cnki.jccs.2022.0618
CUI Feng,HE Shifeng,LAI Xingping,et al. Trend of time sequence b value of rock burst mine based on phase space reconstruction and deep learning[J]. Journal of China Coal Society,2023,48(5):2022−2034. DOI: 10.13225/j.cnki.jccs.2022.0618
Citation: CUI Feng,HE Shifeng,LAI Xingping,et al. Trend of time sequence b value of rock burst mine based on phase space reconstruction and deep learning[J]. Journal of China Coal Society,2023,48(5):2022−2034. DOI: 10.13225/j.cnki.jccs.2022.0618

基于相空间重构与深度学习的冲击地压矿井时间序列b值趋势

Trend of time sequence b value of rock burst mine based on phase space reconstruction and deep learning

  • 摘要: 冲击地压是制约煤炭安全高效开采的重大灾害之一,实现冲击地压的智能化预警是保障煤矿智能安全开采的关键路径。b值作为监测冲击地压的有效指标,掌握矿井开采过程中b值演化趋势对冲击地压的及时预警具有重要意义。为此基于相空间重构(PSR)与深度学习提出了对矿井开采中时间序列b值的短期预测方法,运用相空间重构技术将卷积神经网络识别及降噪后的b值映射到高维空间,混合遗传算法(GA)优化的长短期记忆网络(LSTM)学习高维数据特征构成b值预测模型(PSR–GA–LSTM)。实例结合冲击地压矿井宽沟煤矿W1123综采工作面,计算了降噪后b值的重构参数且实现了数据的重构。评价了不同模型的预测性能并对最优预测模型进行了实例分析。研究结果表明:时间序列b值经过降噪技术处理后,能增强模型对于b值趋势特征的学习能力和降低噪点对于冲击前兆信息的干扰;时间序列b值经过相空间重构及长短期记忆网络的超参数得到优化后,模型的预测精度能得到明显提升;较其他模型相比PSR–GA–LSTM的残差波动范围最小稳定在0.005以内,其误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别为0.001 51、0.001 33、0.29%都低于其他模型;PSR–GA–LSTM模型经过时间序列b值训练后,所预测的b值趋势蕴含着冲击前兆信息,能预先对冲击事件的发生提供b值预警指标。该模型对于匀速推进的冲击地压矿井b值趋势发展有着较好的预测能力,所用方法可为在冲击地压时间上演化发展的预测预警研究提供借鉴与参考。

     

    Abstract: Rock burst is one of serious disasters that inhibit safe and high efficient coal mining. The realization of intelligent pre-warning of rock burst is the critical path to ensure coal mine intelligent and safe mining. As the b value is an effective monitoring indicator of rock burst, it is of great significance for a timely pre-warning of rock burst to grasp the evolution trend of b value in the process of mining. Therefore, based on the phase space reconstruction (PSR) and deep learning, a short-term forecast method for the b value of time sequence in mine exploitation is proposed. The b value of time sequence identified by CNN and denoised is extended to a high-dimensional space through phase space reconstruction technique, and then the long short-term memory (LSTM) network optimized by the genetic algorithm (GA) learns the high-dimensional data feature, which constructs the b value prediction Model (PSR−GA−LSTM). Combined with the W1123 fully mechanized mining face of the Kuangou coal mine identified rock burst mine, the b value of time sequence denoised is reconstructed using the optimized parameters of PSR. The prediction performance of different models is evaluated and the case research of the optimal prediction model is carried out. The research results show that after the b value of time sequence is processed by noise reduction technology, the learning ability of the model for the b value trend feature can be enhanced and the interference of noise to the precursory information of rock burst can be reduced. After the b value of time sequence is reconstructed in phase space and the hyperparameters of the LSTM are optimized, the prediction accuracy of the model can be significantly improved. Compared with other models, the residual fluctuation range of the PSR−GA−LSTM model is the smallest and stable within 0.005, and its root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 0.001 51, 0.001 33, 0.29%, which are lower than other models. After the PSR−GA−LSTM model is trained on the b value of time sequence, the predicted b value trend contains the precursory information of rock burst, which can provide b value pre-warning indicators for the occurrence of rock burst events in advance. The model has a better ability to predict the trend development of the b value of rock burst mine with uniform advance, and the method used in this paper can provide a reference for the prediction and pre-warning research on the evolution of rock burst in time.

     

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