基于随机森林算法的煤层气直井产气量模型

A gas production model of vertical coalbed methane well based on random forest algorithm

  • 摘要: 煤层气产量评价和预测是煤层气开发工程决策的关键基础。随机森林算法具有计算量小、精确度高的优点。影响煤层气井产能的参数包含地质参数、工程措施和排采工艺参数。煤储层地质参数分为动态参数和静态参数两个部分。静态地质参数由煤层的本质属性决定,如:煤层埋深、煤层厚度、地应力等;动态地质参数在排采过程中发生动态变化,如储层压力、渗透率等。排采工艺参数多为动态参数,主要受人为调控,如井底流压、套压、动液面深度、冲次、冲程等。当煤层气井完成选址、钻井、水力压裂等条件进入生产阶段,排采工艺参数对其产量影响至关重要。基于随机森林算法,分析了沁水盆地郑村区块15号煤层8口煤层气井的地质参数和排采工艺参数对产气量的影响,计算得到了排采工艺参数对煤层气井产气量影响的重要性指标排序,即流压>套压>动液面>冲次>冲程>埋深。将煤层气井最近60 d的生产数据作为产气量预测的测试样本,其余历史生产数据作为学习样本。学习样本经过缺失值处理、异常数据处理后,输入至R语言中,利用随机森林算法对历史产气量进行拟合分析。综合考虑排采工艺参数和历史产气量的动态变化对煤层气井后续日产气量的影响,建立了煤层气井的产量模型。依据随机森林算法的分枝优度准则,预测了不同排采方案下的煤层气井日产气量,将预测值与测试样本进行对比分析。结果显示,日产气量预测值中95%以上的数据与实际产量数据(测试样本)的误差小于5%,这说明基于随机森林算法的煤层气直井产量模型具有较高的拟合及预测精度,为煤层气井产能评价和预测提供了借鉴。

     

    Abstract: The evaluation and prediction of coal bed methane ( CBM) is the critical basis of CBM exploitation schemes. Random Forest algorithm performs well in the evaluation and prediction of CBM,which has the advantages of small computation and high accuracy. The production of CBM is controlled by the geological parameters,engineering measures and extraction process parameters. The geological parameters of coal reservoir are divided into dynamic parameters and static parameters. The static geological parameters,such as the buried depth of the coal seam,the thickness of the coal seam,and the ground stress,are determined by the essential properties of the coal seam. Dynamic geological parameters,such as reservoir pressure and permeability,change dynamically in the process of pump and production. Mainly controlled by human operation,the pumping process parameters are mostly dynamic parameters,including bottomhole pressure,casing pressure,dynamic liquid level,pumping speed and stroke,which play an important role on CBM production,when the coalbed methane well enters the production stage after site selection,drilling and hydraulic fracturing stages. According to random forest algorithm,we analyzed how geological parameters and drainage parameters affect the gas production and ranked the parameters impacting on the gas production of coalbed methane well:flow pressure>casing pressure>dynamic liquid level>stroke>buried depth. The production data of coalbed methane wells in the latest 60 days were used as the test sample of gas production prediction,and the historical production data were used as the learning sample. The learning sample data were input into the R Programming Language after processing the missing values and abnormal production data,and Random Forest algorithm was used to fit and analyze the CBM production data. The production model of CBM wells was established by considering the effects of the process parameters and the dynamic changes of historical gas production on the subsequent daily gas production of CBM. Based on the branching goodness criterion of Random Forest algorithm,the model predicted the daily gas production of coalbed methane wells under different pumping schemes. After comparing the predicted value with the test sample,we found that the error between more than 95% of the predicted daily gas volume and the actual production data ( test samples) is less than 5% ,which means the production model of CBM vertical wells based on Random Forest algorithm has high fitting and prediction accuracy,providing a new method for CBM well productivity evaluation and prediction.

     

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