基于支架载荷的矿压双周期分析预测方法
Method of double cycle analysis and prediction for rock pressure based on the support load
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摘要: 矿压动态预测是顶板管理和顶板灾害防治的重要手段，也是矿山压力与岩层控制领域的难点问题，目前国内外缺乏成熟、可靠的动态预测方法。采用现场实测、数据挖掘以及理论分析方法，从支架载荷在时间和空间2个方面周期性变化规律入手，构建了矿压双周期动态分析预测模型。从时间角度，基于覆岩结构及支架围岩关系分析，通过理论推导得到了3类液压支架载荷时序增阻函数，主要包括指数函数、线性函数、对数函数，通过实测数据验证，认为12401工作面支架载荷时序曲线由单一函数和分段函数构成，主要分为4种类型：单纯指数函数，单纯对数函数，对数+线性函数，对数+指数函数，采用滑动窗口动态预测方法和最大拟合优度的准则，建立了采煤循环内液压支架载荷拟合预测模型。从空间角度，分析了循环末阻力随工作面推进度的周期性变化特征，采用系统聚类和K-means两种聚类方法对周期性曲线进行分类并建立模板曲线，采用延伸窗口动态预测方法和最大匹配度准则，建立了循环末阻力模板曲线匹配预测模型。通过软件开发，实现了电液控制系统中立柱压力数据的采集、预处理、矿压特征指标分析、拟合预测、匹配预测等功能，以神东上湾煤矿12401工作面支架载荷数据进行初步预测实践，支架载荷及循环末阻力预测准确率86%以上。矿压双周期预测模型是结合覆岩运动模型和支架载荷实测数据而提出的矿压动态预测新方法，可为综采工作面顶板管理、围岩控制策略的超前制定提供参考。Abstract: Rock pressure prediction is an important means of management and disaster prevention for mine roof. It has always been one of the difficult problem in the area of mine roof control. At present, there is lack of mature, reliable dynamic prediction methods. In this paper, the field measurement, data mining and theoretical analysis methods were adopted, and the double cycle analysis and prediction model for rock pressure was constructed based on the periodic variation law of support load in time and space. On the basis of the research on the interaction relationship between the surrounding rock and the support, three basic resistance increasing functions were obtained, including index functions, linear functions and logarithmic functions. Through the analysis of the measured data, it was considered that the support load time series curve of No.12401 working face is mainly divided into four types, including index functions, logarithmic functions, logarithmic and linear functions, and logarithmic and index functions. According to the sliding window dynamic prediction method and the maximum fitting based on the principle of goodness, a regression prediction model of the working resistance of the support in the coal mining cycle was constructed. The two methods of systematic clustering and K means clustering were used to classify the end of cycle resistance to construct the template curve, based on extension window prediction method and maximum matching criterion. The prediction model through matching was constructed. Through support resistance in No.12401 working face and software development, the double cycle prediction method of support resistance was established, which realized the collection, preprocessing, analysis of rock pressure characteristic indicators, regression prediction, and matching prediction, based on the resistance in the electro hydraulic control system. The prediction accuracy of support load and end of circulation resistance is over 86%.The double cycle prediction model can provide reference for the pre development of surrounding rock control strategy.
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期刊类型引用(15)
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