开采沉陷倾向主断面动态预计模型与算法

Prediction model and algorithm for dynamic subsidence of inclined main section

  • 摘要: 针对开采沉陷动态预计精度较低及对倾向主断面动态预计研究较少的问题,为了提高预计精度和动态预计的针对性,加强动态预计成果在矿区生产和采空区土地利用中的指导作用,基于概率积分静态预计模型,采用“优化分段Knothe时间函数”,对地表倾向主断面动态沉降变形的预计方法进行了研究,主要包括:① 讨论了倾向主断面动态开采单元的划分方法;② 基于概率积分法和有限开采倾向等影响原理,推导了各动态单元的参数计算公式;③ 结合各单元时间函数值,根据叠加原理,建立了适应于水平和缓倾斜煤层的倾向主断面动态预计模型;④ 根据所建模型讨论了动态预计时的计算流程,设计了对应的计算机编程算法,分析了需要注意的难点问题,最后,根据模型和算法编制了动态预计程序,并将其应用到预计实践中。预计实践1表明:无论从上山或下山的任何方向开始开采,预计得到的地表动态移动变形规律都与理论揭示的移动过程相符合;并且,当给定的预计时间足够长,倾向主断面动态下沉预计结果与静态预计结果相一致,进而从理论上揭示了模型和算法的科学性,实现了开采沉陷动静态预计的一体化;预计实践2表明:通过将29401工作面的动态预计结果与实测结果的对比分析可知,预测中误差最小为 54 mm,最大为 452 mm,预计相对误差在总体上可控制在8.5%左右,证明了所建模型及算法的可靠性。

     

    Abstract: In view of the low accuracy of dynamic prediction of mining subsidence and less research on the dynamic prediction of inclined main section,in order to improve the prediction accuracy and the pertinence of dynamic prediction,and strengthen the guidance role of dynamic prediction results in the production of mining area and the land use of goaf,this paper,based on the static prediction model of probability integral,discusses the prediction method of dynamic subsidence for inclined main section by using the “optimized segmented Knothe time function”.The main contents are as follows:firstly,the division method of dynamic mining units for inclined main section is discussed.Secondly,based on the limited mining principle of probability integral method,the parameter calculation formula of each dynamic unit is derived.Thirdly,according to the superposition calculation principle,combining the time function value of each unit,a dynamic prediction model for inclined main section,which is also suitable for horizontal and gently inclined coal seams and rectangular and approximate rectangular working surfaces is established.Fourthly,according to the established model,the calculation process of dynamic prediction is discussed,the corresponding computer programming algorithm is developed,and the difficulties to be noticed are analyzed.Finally,according to the model and algorithm in this paper,the dynamic prediction program is compiled and applied to the prediction practice.Prediction practice 1 shows that no matter which direction the mining begins from,the direction of uphill or downhill the prediction,the results of dynamic subsidence and deformation of inclined main section are always consistent with the theory rules.In addition,when the given prediction time is long enough,the prediction result of dynamic subsidence is also consistent with that of static prediction.Therefore,the scientific basis of the model and algorithm is revealed theoretically,and the integration of dynamic and static prediction of mining subsidence is achieved.Prediction practice 2 shows that it can be seen from the comparative analysis of the dynamic prediction results and the measured results of the 29401 working face,the maximum mean square error of prediction is 452 mm and the minimum is 54 mm.On the whole,the relative error of prediction can be limited to about 8.5%,thus,the reliability of the model and algorithm is proved.

     

/

返回文章
返回