Abstract: Because of the large mining thickness at one-time for extra thick seam using fully-mechanized top coal ca- ving method and nearly shallow buried depth,the characteristics of surface movement and deformation particularity is obvious. Under this condition,its surface subsidence prediction has a certain degree of deviation with the actual situa- tion. This paper analyzed the partic-ularity of surface movement and deformation for extra thick seam using fully-mech- anized top coal caving method and nearly shallow buried depth of the test area. Considering thick-hard rock layer on surface subsidence control function,and based on layered elastic beam slab strata of subsidence control theory and ran- dom medium theory,the authors established a set of surface subsidence prediction model which is suitable for nearly shallow buried depth and extra thick seam using fully-mechanized top coal caving method. Practical application shows that degree of agreement for the prediction model algorithm with the experimental results is good,which is suitable for surface subsidence prediction application in extra thick seam mining using fully-mechanized top coal caving method. The prediction model algorithm preferably solved the problems such as rapid boundary convergence and unsymmetrical basin using probability integral method and improved the prediction accuracy of surface subsidence.